TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Jessica Mackler, President, American Bridge 21st Century
DATE: September 15, 2015
This Wednesday, CNN’s Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, and conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, joined by Donald Trump and his crew of 10 sideshow candidates, will take the stage at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California, for the second GOP primary debate. But first, a brief update on how the field’s shaken up since the last debate.
The GOP candidates have sprinted further to the right than anyone anticipated: Candidates have called for the repeal of the 14th Amendment, and an end to guaranteed citizenship to everyone born in the United States. Jeb Bush embraced the term “anchor babies,” then angrily defended his use of the slur. Second-place Ben Carson said he might order drone strikes on the United States’ southern border. Scott Walker floated the possibility of a wall on the U.S.-Canada border. And, perhaps most egregiously: Mike Huckabee said that 1857’s Dred Scott decision is still “the law of the land.”
Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, failing to keep up with the Donald, have absolutely plummeted in the last month. Scott Walker’s dropped like an anchor: He’s now polling at less than 5% in Iowa and New Hampshire, and a shocking 2% nationally. Jeb’s fallen, too, and polling under 10% in those same surveys. Needless to say, Jeb didn’t do himself any favors by embracing his brother’s disastrous, trillion-dollar invasion of Iraq. Meanwhile, Donald Trump and Ben Carson are on the upswing. The Donald’s dominance’s continued, and Ben Carson’s displaced Jeb Bush, with a firm grasp on the second-place spot both nationally and in Iowa.
And with that, here’s our debate preview with a rundown of what questions each candidate is hoping to avoid; plus, as a bonus, our predictions on how Donald Trump will give each of our favorite clowns a trademarked Trump smack-down.
1. Donald Trump.
- What question would he most hate to be asked?
Literally anything of substance — not that it matters. - How would he spin it?
No matter what he’s asked, you can expect the classic Trump answer: Some vague incoherence that leads to into a xenophobic or sexist tangent, followed by his traditional lamentation about our “weak” leaders, and concluded with an earnest pledge to restore America to greatness.The frontrunner, ladies and gentlemen.
2. Ben Carson.
- What question would he most hate to be asked?
“You’ve consistently maintained that global warming is ‘irrelevant.’ How can you, a world-renowned neurosurgeon, reconcile your science background with your willful ignorance of the incontrovertible reality of global warming?” - How would he spin it?
“We may be warming. We may be cooling,” Carson’s saidin the past. But that kind of statement is active denial of a well-documented scientific consensusthat global warming is both man-made and very real. - What’ll Trump do to get in his head?
Donald Trump called Carson an “OK doctor,” trying to get a rise out of him, and Carson was the one who apologized. Trump isn’t getting to him.
3. Jeb Bush.
- What question would he most hate to be asked?
“You say we’re ‘way beyond’ your brother’s Social Security privatization plan — the plan you pitched to voters in 2005. How much further does your plan go? There’ll have to be serious changes to offset your proposed $3.4 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade.” - How would he spin it?
There’s no spin here. Jeb’s on the record for raising the retirement age, and Jeb’s economists are on the record saying that Jeb will have to make serious changes to earned benefits in order to offset his massive tax cuts. - What’ll Trump do to get in his head?
Donald Trump took up residence there months ago. Wait for the Donald to throw out a “low energy person” Jeb jab, sit back, and watch the fireworks.
4. Ted Cruz.
- What question would he most hate to be asked?
“Do you want to be credited with shutting down the government over Planned Parenthood funding, even as fellow Republicans call it an “exercise in futility,” your Senate colleagues see it as political grandstanding, and a plurality of voters would shoulder your party with the blame?” - How would he spin it?
For anyone else, this might be elicit an awkward response — but it’s Ted Cruz we’re talking about. Expect grandstanding. The only thing this guy loves more than furthering his party’s disunion and shutting down the government, is — well, actually, that’s Senator Cruz’s dream evening. - What’ll Trump do to get in his head?
Trump and Cruz are best buddies — for now. That’ll all change whenever Cruz tries to make a play for Trump’s voters. Expect civility, and Cruz to be sucking up to the Donald.
5. Scott Walker.
- What question would he most hate to be asked?
“You’re crashing and burning, Governor. Your earning less than 5% support in Iowa, as well as nationally. It’s clear that voters are simply no longer interested in your candidacy. How can they trust you after your countless position changes and refusals to take a firm stance on issues?” - How would he spin it?
There’s no given question that Scott Walker is “ready to tackle,” per se — and certainly not one about that very weakness. (He’d probably be comfortable fielding a question or two on his Kohl’s discounted shirt story, but he’s unlikely to get one of those at the debate.) Walker would refuse to take a stance and mumble something about “hypotheticals.” What we can count on: No matter what he says, his campaign will walk it back approximately two days later. - What’ll Trump do to get in his head?
Not applicable; Scott Walker is no longer a threat to Donald Trump.
6. Marco Rubio.
- What question would he most hate to be asked?
“You recently went hard to the right on abortion — now saying that you don’t support exceptions for rape or incest. You have a checkered history on it, though, and in the past have been more flexible. What changed?” - How would he spin it?
Rubio’s sure to stick to his line that he’s always been in favor of zero exceptions. And we know why: He’s looking for anyway he can to out-Trump Trump.We’ll see how that plays with voters… - What’ll Trump do to get in his head?
Look for the Donald to jab Rubio on his friend-turned-rival relationship with Jeb Bush, and question his loyalty.
7. Mike Huckabee.
- What question would he most hate to be asked?
“You recently had a quite embarrassing incident surrounding Kim Davis’ refusal to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. Not only did you suggest that the voice of the Supreme Court — the third branch of government — is meaningless, but you also, apparently forgetting about the 14th Amendment, mistakenly suggested that the Dred Scott decision remains the law of the land. Any regrets?” - How would he spin it?
If things get too heated, Huckabee can always have a staff member step in to box out the questioner. - What’ll Trump do to get in his head?
As with Scott Walker, hard to see Donald Trump going after Huckabee — they’re both down at 5%, why’d the Donald bother?
8. Carly Fiorina.
- What question would she most hate to be asked?
“You are running on your record as a CEO and business professional. You claim experience, but your business record is marred by “massive layoffs,” outsourcing, and your ultimate firing, for which you were compensated $42 million. Is that truly a record to be run on?” - How would she spin it?
She can’t dispute the fact that she “oversaw 30,000 job cuts.” - What’ll Trump do to get in her head?
Trump crossed the line. We trust he’ll be nothing but apologetic for his wildly inappropriate remarks about her appearance.
9. Rand Paul.
- What question would he most hate to be asked?
“Donald Trump recently referred to you as a ‘lightweight,’ who’s state is ’embarrassed’ by you— how do you respond to that accusation?” - How would he spin it?
Oof. - What’ll Trump do to get in his head?
Other than Jeb, and the ever-so-desperate Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul has been one of Donald Trump’s more outspoken critics. Last debate, they had a little scuffle, and Trump jabbed at Paul with a “You’re having a hard time, tonight.” But Paul’s just another face in the crowd these days — not a priority for Trump.
10. John Kasich.
- What question would he most hate to be asked?
“Governor Kasich, why don’t you tell us a little about your role at Lehman Brothersand any responsibility you may have had in your firm’s collapse — a collapse that directly led to 2008’s global financial crisis?” - How would he spin it?
Kasich can spin it any way he wants, but fact of the matter is, he was getting rich while hardworking Americans were losing everything — and they, at the very least, deserve answers on his role. - What’ll Trump do to get in his head?
Even if the moderators don’t ask about it, Trump is sure to question Kasich’s Lehman Brothers record in advocating his populist tax agenda — he’s done it before, stands to reason he’ll bring it up again.
11. Chris Christie.
- What question would he most hate to be asked?
Do NOT ask him about the latest Monmouth University poll. - How would he spin it?
“Spin” isn’t the right word. - What’ll Trump do to get in his head?
Who knows? It probably won’t even be intentional. When you have a temper like Governor Christie does, you can lose your cool over literally anything.
Published: Sep 15, 2015